“Commanding Heights” Daniel Yerning
“The new energy crisis: climate, economics and geopolitics” Jean-Marie Chevalier
General introduction of world state economy
Recession The financial crisis that began in 2007 was clearly understood but what happened last year wasn’t expected. A so deep recession wasn’t expected. We are in therecession, we have signs of the end of the tunnel but we still have a high unemployment and the recovering is going to be long, slow and painful (weak). There is no increase of the revenue. But most of OCDE countries (Japan, US, France) limit their growth with their taxation and social politics. The situation of young people is very difficult.
Demographic shift Today we are 6,5 billionand in 2050 we’ll be 9,5 billion.
The story of the 21’s century is about to be more written in Asia than in Europe. In 2050 Indians are going to be more than Chinese but still les rich. How are we going to supply all the food and their needs? Potential for violence, conflicts, threats of nuclear weapons and terrorists.
Climate change Most worrying problem between now and 2050. Weekafter week, month after month, year after year what specialists say is more and more alarming. It means violent effect and people don’t have the same vulnerability to planet change. The poor are more vulnerable than the rich: they can’t protect themselves against flooding for example (Netherland). On one side we have a great number of private goods ( gas, oil) and they create every years animmense amount of wealth. People go to those goods to make money.
Energy We do consume energy every day. Worldwide 80% of our energy consumption comes from oil, gas, electricity. Energy structure which accelerate climate change. How can we reduce climate change because poor countries need energy to develop their selves?
Water Global warming accelerates water stress. Deepdeterioration of large rivers in the world: worrying.
Agriculture To feed the 3,5 billion new consumers. It’s one of the big problems.
Regulation of capitalism It’s a complicated issue. There was a transition to global economy, today there are new million companies which target is to reduce taxes to pay (fiscal paradise…). Is it possible to regulate this? G20 that occurred in London(which includes China and Brazil for example) was a good improvement in heaven taxes. There are ways to escape from that. Rubbers are running faster than the policemen. Today everything’s good to make money. We need more regulation but a new form of regulation is difficult to set up.
Money war It’s a sort of competitive devaluation (ex:€/$) : fiscal dumping and social dumping becauseof it because if money isn’t competitive countries have to find another way to be competitive.
What economists can do?/ what’s the utility of an economist? They make models to understand or to forecast. There are two big things which might paralyze their understanding:
Generalization of interdependence. For example deforestation in Brazil is not only a national problem because ithas an impact of food prices. There is uncertainty; we don’t know what could be the cost of warming, where it can happen, who will it touch, with which strength?? It’s difficult to be an economist today
Growing inequalities national/worldwide level, poor are suffering more than rich.
Unbunbling: it’s the idea to make a clear separation between upstream and monopolyThere is no definition of strategy. When we look at a company first thing we look at is the size-sales, after market CAP then employees, then activities (regulated/non regulated), and where.
To analyze strategy we can use matrice SWOT. Strategic analysis has been influenced by M.Porter
*La mobilisation des avantages comparatif*s (la *recherche* de rentes *differentielles* et de monopole)...