Business cycle

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Business Cycles Analysis:
FRANCE Vs THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT


Table of contents

I) THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT 3

a. World Real GDP Growth 3

b. Oil Price 6

c. Exchange rate 8

d. Special Factors 9

II) DATA ON DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT 10

a. Business Survey Data 11

b. Index of Consumers Confidence 17

c. Labour and Capital 18

d. Prices, WageLevels, Interest Rates 19

e. Economic Scorecard 21

III) CONTRIBUTION TO REAL GDP GROWTH 30

a. Contribution of Consumption 31

b. Contribution of Government 31

c. Contribution of Investment 32

d. Contribution of Foreign Trade 33

I) THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

1 World Real GDP Growth

|World Real Growth|
|GDP growth (%) |
|GDP growth (%)|
|Year |
|Year |2001 |
| |(Jan, 4th)|
| | |Dec 08 |Jan 09 |Feb 09 |Mar 09 |Apr 09 |Long Term average (since |
| | | | | | | |1976) |
|Households expectations |Indexof consumer |-44 |-42 |-43 |-42 |-41 |-22 |
| |confidence | | | | | | |
|Business expectations |Industrial Orders | |-58 |-55 |-67 |-70 |-18 |
|| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| |Business Climate |73 |73 |68 |68 |71 |100 |
||Indicator | | | | | | |
| |Rates of capacity | |75.0 | | |70.6 |83.8 |
| |utilization | | | | | | ||Special Factors |We have to consider the context of the global crisis, the weak purchasing power that explains the bad |
| |expectations about the future demand. The recovery plan impacts on the domestic environment too. |

Source: INSEE, April 2009 (Quarterly and monthly business surveys, Consumer opinion survey)

a. Business Survey Data1) Industrial Production Indexes by activity (NA), 2005 based, SA-WDA changes in %

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| |change in 1 year (1) |change in 3 months (2) |February / January |March / February |
|BE : INDUSTRY |-15.5 |-6.9 |-0.9 |-1.4 |
|CZ: MANUFACTURING |-17.8...
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