WikiLeaks release: March 26, 2010 keywords: restraint: title: date: group: author: link: pages: WikiLeaks, U.S. intelligence, U.S. Army, National Ground Intelligence Center, NGIC, classiﬁed, SECRET, NOFORN Classiﬁed CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN (US) CIA Red Cell Special Memorandum; Afghanistan: Sustaining West European Support for theNATO-led Mission-Why Counting on Apathy Might Not Be Enough March 11, 2010 Central Intelligence Agency; Red Cell CIA Red Cell http://wikileaks.org/ﬁle/cia-afgthanistan.pdf 4
By WikiLeaks staﬀ (wl-oﬃce@sunshinepress.org)
This classiﬁed CIA analysis from March, outlines possible PR-strategies to shore up public support in Germany and France for a continued war in Afghanistan. After theDutch government fell on the issue of dutch troops in Afghanistan last month, the CIA became worried that similar events could happen in the countries that post the third and fourth largest troop contingents to the ISAF-mission. The proposed PR strategies focus on pressure points that have been identiﬁed within these countries. For France it is the sympathy of the public for Afghan refugees andwomen. For Germany it is the fear of the consequences of defeat (drugs, more refugees, terrorism) as well as for Germany’s standing in the NATO. The memo is an recipe for the targeted manipulation of public opinion in two NATO ally countries, written by the CIA. It is classiﬁed as Conﬁdential / No Foreign Nationals.
CIA Red Cell
A Red Cell SpecialMemorandum 11 March 2010
Afghanistan: Sustaining West European Support for the NATO-led Mission—Why Counting on Apathy Might Not Be Enough (C//NF)
This memo was prepared by the CIA Red Cell, which has been charged by the Director of Intelligence with taking a pronounced "out-of-the-box" approach that will provoke thought and offer an alternative viewpoint on the full range of analytic issues.Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the CIA Red Cell at (703) 482-6918 / 482-0169 or 44462/50127, secure. (C)
The fall of the Dutch Government over its troop commitment to Afghanistan demonstrates the fragility of European support for the NATO-led ISAF mission. Some NATO states, notably France and Germany, have counted on publicapathy about Afghanistan to increase their contributions to the mission, but indifference might turn into active hostility if spring and summer fighting results in an upsurge in military or Afghan civilian casualties and if a Dutchstyle debate spills over into other states contributing troops. The Red Cell invited a CIA expert on strategic communication and analysts following public opinion at theState Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) to consider information approaches that might better link the Afghan mission to the priorities of French, German, and other Western European publics. (C//NF)
Public Apathy Enables Leaders To Ignore Voters. . . (C//NF) The Afghanistan mission’s low public salience has allowed French and German leaders to disregard popular opposition andsteadily increase their troop contributions to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Berlin and Paris currently maintain the third and fourth highest ISAF troop levels, despite the opposition of 80 percent of German and French respondents to increased ISAF deployments, according to INR polling in fall 2009. • Only a fraction (0.1-1.3 percent) of French and German respondentsidentified “Afghanistan” as the most urgent issue facing their nation in an open-ended question, according to the same polling. These publics ranked “stabilizing Afghanistan” as among the lowest priorities for US and European leaders, according to polls by the German Marshall Fund (GMF) over the past two years. According to INR polling in the fall of 2009, the view that the Afghanistan mission is a waste...