The chocolate confectionery market today: Consumer trends and outlook
Maria Castroviejo, FAR
19 May 2010

Contents
Section 1: Global trends in chocolate consumption
− Chocolate confectionery as user of cocoa − Geographic distribution of chocolate confectionery demand − Major consumer drivers

Section 2: Chocolate confectionery manufacturers and cocoa as a cost
− − − − The value chain for chocolate confectionery Impact of commodities and currencies Other challenges faced by chocolate confectionery manufacturers Conclusions

2

Global trends in chocolate consumption

Chocolate confectionery as cocoa demand engine
Share of total cocoa bean use

Source: Rabobank, Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory, 2010

4

Rabobank International

The chocolate confectionery markets today
Top-10 chocolate confectionery consuming countries (4.8 million tonnes, 67% of total volume, CAGR 1.6%)
10%

8%

Brazil Poland Ukraine Russia

6% CAGR 2004-2009

4% United Kingdom Italy France 5% Japan USA 10% Germany -2% 15% 20% 25% 30%

2%

0% -5% 0%

-4%

% of global consumption

5

Source: Euromonitor , Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory, 2010

Rabobank International

Major volume changes: The growers
Thousand tonnes CAGR Absolute % of 1999 growth absolute -2009 growth Change 2008-09 Thousand tonnes 11,7 5,8 9,3 -23,5 7,3 6,7 7,5 2,6 3,2 8,4 0 4,6 1,4 -2,4 0,7 43.3 -35.4 Rabobank International

Russia Brazil UK Ukraine China Poland Argentina Indonesia Turkey India Iran Australia Spain Italy Canada Top-15
Total World 6

7,3% 5,6% 1,6% 8,4% 9,8% 6,4% 6,1% 17,8% 7,0% 10,9% 3,6% 3,3% 3,7% 1,8% 2,0% 4.8%
2.2%

369 105,9 103,2 85,8 75,2 71,9 52,7 50,6 48,6 41,2 33,3 30,4 29 26,7 20,4
1143,9 1428,6

26% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 80%
100%

Top-15 = 80% of the new volume 09-2009. Most still growing in the downturn

Source: Euromonitor , Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory, 2010