History and china's future behavior
-------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------
“When China will wake up, the entire world will be shaken”. Is this famous Napoleon’s prediction a sort of Nostradamus premonition? Should we consider that great strategist as a fortunate soothsayer, or could we understand that, in reality, he had only integrated the resilient characteristic of that sleeping giant’s history? Maybe should we rely on that famous citation to understand that analyzing Chinese History was already helpful two centuries ago to predict its future. Nevertheless, analyzing it would have let predict, until 50 years ago, that China could have turned to be again the regional closed empire as it had always been, with vassals in its closest vicinity, but few exchanges with the rest of the world, thanks to agricultural surplus and commodities self-sufficiency. The facts have thus proved the contrary. A paradoxical situation appeared thus as soon as the consequences of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms made China disobey to its resilient curse. Indeed, an incredible cyclical history let us think that Chinese future could be predicted owed to its numerous common points with its past, and that its rise as a global power would, as every similar rise in History, would cause conflicts. Yet, the situation has turn to be very different. Following Zhou Enlai’s habit, we shall not conclude anything of that very recent history because “it is too soon to say”, but we shall wonder whether we can rely on Global and Chinese Histories to forecast the future behavior of China as a leading world power. Thus, we will here firstly focus on the resilience and on the cyclical character of China’s might along the centuries, what could lead to think that the future can be forecasted, and that global conflicts can be expected, according to a sort of global historic rule, leading to another period of construction and