Oil shock

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Viewpoints Special Edition

The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy, Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations
The Middle East Institute Washington, DC

Middle East Institute

The mission of the Middle East Institute is to promote knowledge of the Middle East in America and strengthen understanding of the United States by the people and governments of the region.
For more than 60 years, MEI has dealtwith the momentous events in the Middle East — from the birth of the state of Israel to the invasion of Iraq. Today, MEI is a foremost authority on contemporary Middle East issues. It provides a vital forum for honest and open debate that attracts politicians, scholars, government officials, and policy experts from the US, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. MEI enjoys wide access to political andbusiness leaders in countries throughout the region. Along with information exchanges, facilities for research, objective analysis, and thoughtful commentary, MEI’s programs and publications help counter simplistic notions about the Middle East and America. We are at the forefront of private sector public diplomacy. Viewpoints are another MEI service to audiences interested in learning more about thecomplexities of issues affecting the Middle East and US relations with the region. The views expressed in these Viewpoints are those of the authors; the Middle East Institute does not take positions on Middle East policy.

To learn more about the Middle East Institute, visit our website at http://www.mei.edu

Cover photos, clockwise from the top left hand corner: United States Government(USG), USG, USG, Wikipedia user Guitar guy, USG, USG, and USG. 2 Middle East Institute Viewpoints: The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy, Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations • www.mei.edu

Viewpoints Special Edition

The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy, Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations

Middle East Institute Viewpoints: The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy, Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations • www.mei.edu

3 Viewpoints: 1979
East Institute is marking the 30th anniversary of these events in 2009 by launching a year-long special series of our acclaimed publication, Viewpoints, which offers perspectives on these events and the influence that they continue to exert on the region today. Each special issue of Viewpoints will combine the diverse commentaries of policymakers and scholars from around theworld with a robust complement of statistics, maps, and bibliographic information in order to encourage and facilitate further research. Each special issue will be available, free of charge, on our website, www.mei. edu.

The year 1979 was among the most tumultuous, and important, in the history of the modern Middle East. The Middle

February Viewpoints: The Iranian Revolution

MarchViewpoints: The Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty

July Viewpoints: Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s Fall and Pakistan’s New Direction

August Viewpoints: Oil Shock

November Viewpoints: The Seizure of the Great Mosque

December Viewpoints: The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

Don’t miss an issue! Be sure to bookmark www.mei.edu today.


Middle East Institute Viewpoints: The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy,Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations • www.mei.edu

The 1979 “Oil Shock:” Legacy, Lessons, and Lasting Reverberations
A Special Edition of Viewpoints Introduction I. Changing Markets
OPEC’s Adaptation to Market Changes, by Jahangir Amuzegar The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil Demand Growth, by Julian Lee 9 13 7

Oil Price Volatility: Causes and Modeling, by Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene18 Energy Security, by Gawdat Bahgat Oil Price Volatility: Speculation or Market Fundamentals, by Salman Saif Ghouri Oil Shocks and the Reshaping of the Oil Industry, by Youssef M. Ibrahim Endless Adjustment: How the Second Oil Shock Hatched Today’s Oil Market, by Mary Ann Tétreault 33 23 26 30

II. Regional Aspects
In 1979 OPEC’s Swing Producer Came Out Swinging, by Andrew Scott Cooper Oil...
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