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The macroeconomics of disasters

732 mots 3 pages
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Ilan Noy

Par: Chloe fernandez Wilfried Kouame

•Définition d’un désastre selon le cred: situation naturelle et/ou un évènement qui dépasse les capacités locales, nécessitant une assistance extérieur.

•Selon l’ONU environ 1,6 milliards de personnes affectés par désastres naturels depuis 2000 •Nombre de personnes touchés multiplié par 3 malgré les recherches en sciences sociales et naturelles (en terme de prédictions).

 •

recherches à l’ensemble des pays Economie de la nature des désastres dans les recherches de prévisions -recherche économique sur la nature des désastres n’est qu’à l’état embryonnaire - Etudes ex-post (VS ex-ante dans les sciences sociales) -les institutions et les choix politiques peuvent avoir un impact sur les comportements des agents face aux désastres -difficulté de généraliser les résultats des



HISTOIRE

•Données sur l’occurrence et l’effet des désastres documentées dans EMDAT •Enregistrement des données dans l’EM-DAT: Certains critères. •Collectées par le CRED (Centre de Recherche sur l’Epidémiologie des Désastres) et rédigées par divers sources (ONU, compagnies d’assurances, institutions) •Les désastres possibles sont: inondations, poussée de vagues , tempêtes, sécheresses, glissements de terrain, avalanches, tremblement de terre, tsunamis, éruptions volcaniques, épidémies et infections. •Mesure la magnitude des désastres par rapport à la taille de l’économie (Nombre de personnes affectés ou tués rapportés à la population de l’année anterieure) = COUTS •Importance de la période de l’année = OM =>Indicateur de mesure des desastres DMS, avec une spécificité sur les couts (DM) et le mois de commencement. DMS= DM(12-OM)/12 •Problèmes: -les sources des données ainsi que leur crédibilité (pays accroit les impacts mesurés, joue sur les aides des pays donateurs.) -au niveau des efforts de collecte (moins transparentes et fiables surtout dans les PVD)

-Véritable problème sur les sources des données ainsi que leur

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