Les petits princes

Pages: 11 (2612 mots) Publié le: 9 mai 2010
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has enjoyed the status of being the greatest restaurant story in history. In our lifetime, or in any for that matter, the company grew from a start-up to a Dow Jones Industrial Average component with over 32,000 restaurants in its global empire. But what gets interesting is that McDonald’s is not just the world’s largest restaurant chain. McDonald’s has roughlyseen its share price double in the last five years and now the stock is effectively worth as much as the entire public universe of restaurant chains in the United States. The tally is about $72.5 billion for the rest of the public restaurant universe versus about $69.8 billion for that of McDonald’s. This begs a question…. Can McDonald’s keep growing in this manner?

We tallied up the likes ofYum! Brands, Inc., (NYSE:YUM), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Darden Restaurants, Inc., (NYSE: DRI), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG), Tim Horton’s Inc. (NYSE: THI), Wendy’s/Arby’s Group, Inc. (NYSE: WEN), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Panera Bread Co. (NASDAQ: PNRA), Brinker International Inc. (NASDAQ: EAT), Jack in the Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK), Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ:BWLD), Papa John’s International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA), Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC), and Domino’s Pizza (NYSE: DPZ).

And there are more than twice as many public restaurant and dining companies not reviewed for the restaurant chain tally and more which we showed in the chart of the restaurant and dining stocks. As far as the restaurant counts? That is not even close either. The above namedrestaurant chains have a combined tally of about 110,000 stores versus the 32,000+ from McDonald’s. Not even close, at least when you consider the nominal figure. This is one of those extraordinary moments in time where there almost exists the world’s greatest investment conundrum…. A value trap against its universe of peers, yet a value trap that still manages to represent growth a reasonable priceand is still attractive to many investors. This also may end up setting one of the world’s greatest and most difficult pairs trades ever.

McDonald’s is the leading global food service retailer. It has more than 32,000 local restaurants and has stores in more than 100 countries. The company has a company-owned model and a franchise model, but about 80% of McDonald’s restaurants worldwide areowned and operated by franchisees. 2010 revenue estimates are $23.8 billion and 2011 revenue estimates are $24.6 billion; earning estimates are $4.43 EPS and $4.82 EPS for the same respective periods. The golden arches also has one of the more impressive dividend payouts with a yield of about 3.4% now and it has ample dividend coverage to continue hiking its payouts.

Yum! Brands, Inc.,(NYSE:YUM), based in Louisville, Kentucky, is actually the world’s largest restaurant company in terms of system restaurants, with more than 36,000 restaurants in over 110 countries and territories. Its value is a far distant #2 in market cap at almost $16 billion. Revenues were in excess of $11 billion in 2008. Four of the Company’s restaurant brands are KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Long John Silver’s.The revenue estimates for 2010 are about $11.1 billion and for 2011 are about $11.46 billion. Its dividend payout is close to 2.5% and it too has room for dividend growth ahead on its coverage.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) was one of the greatest growth stories as well, up until recent years when growth turned into maturity and then into value. The coffee giant operates in all 50 states and D.C.and lists 7,087 company-operated stores and 4,081 licensed stores. It also operates in 43 countries outside the United States and there it counts company-operated stores as 1,796 stores throughout Australia, Canada, Chile, China (Northern China, Southern China), Germany, Ireland, Puerto Rico, Singapore, Thailand and the United Kingdom. On an international basis it lists its joint venture and...
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