Mean squared error

1176 % Incorrectly Classified Instances 3 5.8824 % Kappa statistic 0.9113 Mean absolute error 0.0447 Root mean squared error 0.1722 Relative absolute error 10.0365 % Root relative squared error 36.4196 % Coverage of cases (0.95 level) 98.0392 % Mean rel. region size (0.95 level) 37.2549 % Total Number of Instances 51 === Detailed Accuracy By Class

adjustments PIB=C(1)+C(2)*OC+C(3)*IDE+C(4)*DEP C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 1.122669 0.094605 -0.000720 -4.93E-05 2.645101 0.063512 0.000940 7.89E-05 0.424433 1.489559 -0.765427 -0.625305 0.6747 0.1484 0.4509 0.5372 0.123680 0.022567 2.339684 142.3272 -65.92212 1.223180 0.321167 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   LX2 0.108262 0.040065 2.702182 0.0270 LX3 -0.243122 0.074207 -3.276263 0.0113 LX4 0.130651 0.057756 2.262106 0.0535 LX5 -0.001937 0.005632 -0.343933 0.7398 LX6 -0.004261 0.091519 -0.046554 0.9640 C 0.636051 0.858231 0.741119 0.4798 R-squared 0.885952     Mean dependent var 0.796445 Adjusted R-squared 0.814672     S.D. dependent var 0.005776 S.E. of regression 0.002487     Akaike info criterion -8.858152 Sum squared resid 4.95E-05     Schwarz

adjustments | | | | | | | | | | | Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob.   | | | | | | | | | | | LOG(DOW(-1)) | -0

Sample (adjusted): 2001 2008 Cross-sections included: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 80 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Instrument list: C CAR(-3) REG ROA TAIL Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.900310 0.257019 3.502887 0.0008 REG -1.115747 0.687475 -1.622965 0.1088 ROA -0.039976 0.010776 -3.709706 0.0004 TAIL -3.574598 1.839911 -1.942810 0.0558 VCAR

observations: 30 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   LPRM(-1) -0.717838 0.207776 -3.454875 0.0018 C 5.711763 1.668667 3.422950 0.0020 @TREND(1982) 0.036153 0.010970 3.295573 0.0028 R-squared 0.322675     Mean dependent var 0.064738 Adjusted R-squared 0.272503     S.D. dependent var 0.382105 S.E. of regression 0.325911     Akaike info criterion 0.690252 Sum squared resid 2.867879     Schwarz criterion 0.830372 Log likelihood -7.353787

Sample: 1 5 | Included observations: 5 | Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. | C | 563.3353 | 119.7213 | 4.705389 | 0.0182 | X | -5.86E-06 | 2.95E-06 | -1.987324 | 0.1410 | R-squared | 0.568312 | Mean dependent var | 339.4890 | Adjusted R-squared | 0.424415 | S.D. dependent var | 119.5796 | S.E. of regression | 90.72179 | Akaike info criterion | 12.14265 | Sum squared resid | 24691.33 | Schwarz criterion | 11.98642 | Log likelihood | -28

| | |Variable |Coefficient |Std. Error |t-Statistic |Prob. | |C | | |-4.460743 | | |PRODw | | |6.922564 | | |R-squared | | Mean dependent var |9.230014 | | |Adjusted R-squared | | S.D. dependent var |2.527469

observations: 36 after adjusting endpoints Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LPIBR(-1) D(LPIBR(-1)) C 0.005991 -0.122047 -0.053594 0.022642 0.174932 0.349531 0.264604 -0.697682 -0.153330 0.7930 0.4903 0.8791 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.015255 -0.044427 0.048454 0.077477 59.46148 1.845402 Lfbcf ADF Test Statistic -0.662784 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion

includes the years of 2004-2006. These time periods have been chosen in order to see how the effect of trade affinities has altered through time. In order to get a more realistic estimation, the time periods were aggregated and divided by three to get the mean value for each time period. All four time periods are based on the official countries in Europe of today and thus the same countries were chosen for all time periods.2 Furthermore, a time difference of 10 years between each period will hopefully be