09/21/2009

Paper: Will There Be An Open Conflict Between the US and China Within 25 years?

The rise of China from a poor and stagnant country to a major economic power within less than 30 years is now considered as the greatest economic transformation and success that has ever happened. This tremendous emergence of China as a superpower has raised a lot of concern among American decision makers who are afraid that China might outperform and stand in the USA’s light. By using the word ‘hedge’, Zoellick’s helps clarify the blurred relationship between China and the USA: they are both hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. This ambiguity leads to a simple question of the utmost importance for the future of the planet: will there be an open conflict between the US and China within 25 years? Will it be marked by convergence towards deepening cooperation, stability and peace, or by deterioration, open competition ad perhaps even war? This paper aims at showing that in spite of an increasing competition and mistrust between the US and China (I), an open conflict between the two powers seems unlikely to happen (II). Here, “open conflict” means a state of openly declared and often prolonged fight between two countries. But this US-China relationship should rather evolve towards an informal conflict leaning on an influential struggle over Asia and the rest of the world (III). In front of the impossibility to deal with all the aspects of the US-China relationship, this paper is not exhaustive and just lays the emphasis on some major features if this relationship. 1) In spite of an increasing competition and mistrust…

Indeed, there was an increasing competition and mistrust in the US-China relationship in the last decades. And some observers consider that this trend is the omen of a potential soon-to-be open conflict between the two powers. The first factor of competition is the economic growth of China, which allows this power to