The race to development
Emerging countries should catch up with developed ones by 2030
In 2010, China's economy surpassed that of Japan. United States is still far ahead but at thecurrent pace, China will become the world's largest economy in 2027.
Usually curves should bend and emerging economies, once emerged, should slow down.
Thus, we might think that the catch-up speedof China, India, Brazil and other emerging markets would also slowing. But this is not the case, however.
The main reason of this unusual trend is the deep financial crisis that developed countriesare facing for two years. It slowed the growth in developed countries for a long time while emerging countries catching up is accelerating.
Behind development, there are indeed several driversrunning, not just the technological and managerial copy, as recalled by Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis. Other drivers are:
Education level elevation: in China, the number of graduates ofhigher education increased from 2,000,000 in 2002 to 7,000,000 in 2008; Brazil, he went from 500,000 to a million.
Migration from the countryside to cities that provide their steady stream of cheaplabor. For this reason, wages remain under pressure; they rise but labor costs in emerging countries remain much longer competitive with those of rich countries.
The household debt capacity, stillvery low, may, by improving, boost growth.
Development path is not straight. We fear social explosions in China for twenty years at least because of a conflict between the center and theregions and another due to economic freedom and the absence of civil liberty.
India, on the contrary, for some, this is democracy in a class society, which should lead to paralysis. These pitfallshave been avoided but there is no guarantee they are always.
In addition, two other dangers arise, threatening:
Increasing in raw materials prices that could pull the rug from under the feet of those...
Lire le document complet
Veuillez vous inscrire pour avoir accès au document.