| On the Ground |

Analyst
Victor Lopes, +9714 508 4884
Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai Economist Victor.Lopes@sc.com

Côte d’Ivoire – So near and yet so far
15:00 GMT 24 February 2010

A new government has been announced and elections have been delayed until May 2010 This follows the dissolution of the government and the Electoral Commission that led to unrest While a major setback for the electoral process, it does not mean the end of the peace process Election delays could lead to delayed debt restructuring and prevent an economic rebound; we cut our 2010 growth forecast to 3%, from 5% previously

New government, new election delays
Long-awaited elections in Côte d’Ivoire have suffered a serious setback as the process will be delayed following the dissolution of the government on 12 February and the subsequent unrest that has already resulted in injuries and deaths. The recent controversy surrounding the Electoral Commission’s inclusion of 429,000 potentially ineligible names on the electoral list triggered considerable tension between the presidency and the opposition. The president of the Electoral Commission (from an opposition party) refused to resign, amid opposition claims that this was a political manoeuvre by President Gbagbo to delay the elections (which were scheduled to be held in March). Although the Prime Minister, Guillaume Soro (a former rebel spokesman), removed the disputed names, this was not enough to avert the postponement of the elections. Arguing that free and fair elections could not be held following this incident, President Gbagbo dissolved the government, as well as the Electoral Commission. The latter move might reflect the president’s possible desire to weaken the opposition, which holds several portfolios in the National Unity government (resulting from the Ouagadougou agreements signed in 2007) and, importantly, has several members on the Electoral Commission in charge of the highly sensitive compilation of the electoral