THE CUBAN ECONOMY IN A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTY
Joaquín P. Pujol
In 2008, I presented a paper at ASCE´s annual meeting titled “Economic Challenges facing the Cuban Authorities.” On that occasion I identified twelve economic policy areas where the Cuban authorities were facing their most pressing challenges, indicated some actions that they had either announced or taken, and sought to evaluate the likelihood that these actions would likely have a significant impact on these challenges. The twelve areas related to the need to: 1. raise the low productivity of the workers and of the economy at large; 2. increase domestic food production so as to be able to feed the population without undue dependence on imports; 3. provide adequate housing to the population; 4. take care of an aging population and reverse the emigration of young people; 5. provide adequate transportation; 6. reduce dependence on foreign oil; 7. repair and replace a deteriorated infrastructure (factories, roads, railroads, sewerage systems, etc); 8. eliminate the economic distortions brought about by the multiple currency system, the artificial and arbitrary exchange rate, and the indiscriminate subsidies arising from the operation of the “libreta de racionamiento”; 9. restore the quality of medical services and education; 10. reduce the balance of payments deficit and improve the credit worthiness of the Cuban economy in international markets; 11. liberalize the labor market, including by allowing widespread development of self employment activities (“actividades por cuenta propia”) and the establishment of small and medium sized private enterprises; and 12. establish a clearly defined legal framework that is consistently applied by the authorities, and well known and respected by the population. One year later, the economic situation has further deteriorated due to the failure to make significant reforms in most areas, the destruction resulting from the hurricanes that ravaged the island in 2008, and