Canadian currency from 1998-2003
6931 mots
28 pages
Introduction 2Part 1: Canada’s economic and political environments 2 The Canadian Monetary policy 3 Inflation and rates 3 Exchange rate and exchange market intervention 3 Deficit policy 4 Review of actual economic conditions (2003) 4 Economic shocks Canada has tackled in 2003 4
Part 2: Canada’s balance of payments’ analysis 5 Current Account Balance 5 Capital and Financial Account 6
Part 3: Exchange rate evolution 8 From Mar.98 to Oct.98: 9 From Oct.98 to Jan.00: 10 From Jan.00 to Jan.02: 11 From Jan.02 to Jul.02 : 11 From Jul.02 to Nov.02 : 12 From Nov.02 to Jul.03 : 13 From Jul.03 to Sep.03 : 14
Part 4 : Economic and Exchange rate evolution analysis 14
Part 5: Forecast of the Canadian dollar for next year 16 PPP and IFE 16 Regression analysis on Canadian exchange rate 17 1) Time-series analysis 17 Conclusion of this analysis 19 2) The relationship between FX rate and the other Canadian economy indicators 19 Official forecasts 21
APPENDIX 22 Table 1: Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) 22 Table 2: Federal Debt Figure 22 Table 3: Canadian Unemployment Rate 23 Table 4 A: Canadian GDP (economic output) 23 Table 4 B: Canadian GDP (Top 25 GDP per capita) 24 Table 5: Canada’s balance of payment 25 Table 6: Oneway Anova 25 Table 7: Respons FX Rate 2002 & 2003 26 Table 8: Response FX Rate 27 Table 9: Forward rates 27 Graph 1: Basic Balance 28 Graph 2: Total Current account balance 28 Graph 3: Total Balance of Goods 29 Graph 4: Capital and financial account 29 Graph 5 Investment flows 30 Graph 6 Portfolio investmens 30 Graph 7: Government budget 31 Graph 8: Exchange rate based – PPP, IFE 31 Graph 9: Graph 8 close up 32 Graph 10: Exchange rate (other currencies / CAD) 32 Correlation matrix 33 Canadian dollar Exchange rate against the US dollar: Monthly average 34 Canadian dollar Exchange rate against the US dollar: Daily