Etude sur les ménages roumains
Country focus
Romania Households finally increasing their saving propensity?
Rozáliá Pál
The financial wealth of households is estimated to have recovered in 2009, mainly on the back of a higher savings propensity and a positive wealth effect resulting from gains on the financial markets and despite rising unemployment and negative real wage growth. The more favourable economic outlook, despite persisting tensions in the labour market, combined with more cautious consumer behaviour may allow further recovery in wealth accumulation over the forthcoming period. Net wealth over GDP is set to reach some 14 % of GDP in 2010 – 2011 from a mere 5 % recorded in 2008 Traditional savings products such as bank savings have been strongly supported by attractive returns, while investment funds and listed shares recorded a fast and impressive recovery supported by the favourable market performance. The first year of a fully functioning private pension system has also supported wealth accumulation The consumption boom phase led by rapid lending growth during recent years approached its end in 2009 due to tightening lending requirements, re-pricing of risk and uncertainty over future earnings. Lending growth is expected to recover only marginally in 2010, with growth returning to double-digit figures only starting mid / end of 2011. A still rising debt burden remains a key issue to monitor
Table 1: Household real and financial indicators
2006 2007 2008 2009 e 2010 f 2011 f
Per capita net financial wealth (€) Monthly wage (€) Monthly wage (% YoY LC) Unemployment rate (%) (1) Home ownership (%) (2) Household financial assets (% YoY LC) Household financial liabilities (% YoY LC) Household financial saving ratio (% GDP) Household net financial wealth (% GDP) Housing affordability index (house price per sqm over gross monthly wage) (3) Mortgage in % GDP FX indexed / denominated loans (% total) (4) Households NPLs ratio (%) (5)
663