Probability

"What's the probability that, if I do a good job, that there will be some kind of outcome in it for me?" If an employee believes that a high level of performance will be instrumental for the acquisition of outcomes which may be gratifying, then the employee will place a high value on performing well. Vroom defines Instrumentality as a probability belief linking one outcome (a high level of performance, for example) to another outcome (a reward). Instrumentality may range from a probability of 1.0 (meaning

to the research. By using a large sample size, “it may reduce the sampling error associated with the project” (Wilson A. 2006). 8 4. Sampling procedure A non-probability sampling technique will be used since its cost is inferior to a probability sampling and it takes less time to carry out the research. Within the non-probability techniques, a quota sampling technique will be chosen. As Malhotra NK. (2010) defines it, a quota sampling is “a nonprobability sampling technique that is a two-stage

cutoff C = 0.5) Estimated Equation Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=1 Total Dep=0 Dep=1 Total P(Dep=1)<=C 893 9 902 900 100 1000 P(Dep=1)>C 7 91 98 0 0 0 Total 900 100 1000 900 100 1000 Correct 893 91 984 900 0 900 % Correct 99.22 91.00 98.40 100.00 0.00 90.00 % Incorrect 0.78 9.00 1.60 0.00 100.00 10.00 Total Gain* -0.78 91.00 8.40 Percent Gain** NA 91.00 84.00 Estimated Equation Constant Probability Dep=0 Dep=1 Total Dep=0 Dep=1 Total

efficiency indexes. Be able to calculate equipment availability from reliability and maintainability laws. Be able to analyse success factors when selecting and deploying a Computer Aided Maintenance system. Prerequisites Industrial engineering, probability theory and statistics, quality management. Course contents Business Process Redesign, Continuous Process Improvement and Total Productive Maintenance Overall Equipment Efficiency and its decomposition using usual rates and indexes Total Productive

Billingsley. Convergence of Probability Measures, 2nd Edition. Wiley-Interscience, 1999. 10 [3] Vittoria Colizza, Alain Barrat, Marc Barthélemy, and Alessandro Vespignani. Predictability and epidemic pathways in global outbreaks of infectious diseases : the sars case study. BMC Medicine, 2007. [4] L. Decreusefond, J-S. Dhersin, P. Moyal, and V. C. Tran. Large graph limit for an sir process in random network with heterogeneous connectivity. Annals of Applied Probability, à paraître. [5] A. Joffe

d'abord écrit sur la philosophie (il s'agit souvent d'écrits destinés soit aux Cambridge Apostles, soit au Bloomsbury Group comme My Early Beliefs), sur les probabilités (de manière plus universitaire - son premier grand livre est son Treatise on Probability) et sur la politique (un de ses écrits de jeunesse est un texte sur Edmund Burke). Keynes et la philosophie : Keynes comme les Cambridge Apostles de son temps est très influencé par les Principia Ethica de George Edward Moore. Pour ce dernier

criteria (r) for the individual project (j). The off-diagonal element vrji represents the value interaction between projects (j) and (i) of output (r). Probability interaction matrix. The diagonal elements pjj represent the probability of success P=(pji) of each individual project (j). The off-diagonal element pji is the marginal change in the probability that project (j) will succeed given that project (i) is undertaken. In general, P is not symmetric since project (j) may have greater impact on project

level that is right for you. You might even enjoy them. ********************** 15. Get to grips with probability • Many people have little or no comprehension of elementary statistics or probability theory and their thinking suffers as a consequence. They make many errors that could be avoided by using basic statistics. • A basic grasp of basic probability will serve you well in understanding risk, chances, statistics and gambling. It will help you to assess choices and

avancée ● ● PME (risque plus important) : cote BDF = 57 ; PD = 1,6% ; LGD = 40% ; CA = 10 MEUR ; prêt senior maturité 5 ans 8 KEUR 8 KEUR ● 6,9 KEUR ● 7,9 KEUR ● ● 8 KEUR 4 KEUR ● 3,5 KEUR ● 4,6 KEUR ● ● *BDF : Banque de France PD : Probability of default (probabilité de défaillance) LGD : Loss given default (perte en cas de défaillance) La focalisation sur le risque réel La mise en œuvre des notations internes par les grandes banques les conduira à davantage mesurer le risque de chaque

tests de Student sur les paramètres, il convient de vérifier la normalité des erreurs. - Règle de Décision Test de normalité des erreurs, Tableau # 8 Les résidus sont normalement distribués si Skewness = 0, Kurtuosis = 3 et la probalité (Probability) associée à la statistique Jarque-Bera est supérieur à 5 %. Conformément, aux principes de base de ce test, le terme d’erreur doit suivre, au coefficient de 95%, une loi normale. Après le calcul sur E-views, on a trouvé le résultat ci-dessous.