Risk

........................... 23 Foreign Relations.................................................................................................................................... 24 © 2003, The PRS Group, Inc. ISSN: 1054-528X Political Risk Services X Country Forecast Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group is strictly prohibited. Ven. Colombia Boa q Vista Sur. Guy. French Guiana (FR.) Equator Manaus Am az q q ➘ Belém q São Luís North Atlantic

factor. For the 75-70% remainder it would be exclusively bound at a bad comportment physical or alimentary. For example when the 2 parents are thin, the risk for their child to become obese at the adulthoods is 10%, if one of 2 parents is obese the risk is multiplied by 4, so 40% and for two obese parents it will be of 80% all of this cause a bigger risk of disease for theirs child. As I said higher the plague that is the obesity is now had to has a bad balance food/ physical spending. We absorb more

or know about or someone that evolves in the same circle of relationships. It means that your connexions are more important than your personal achievements. ✓ Risk avoidance: having a right Guanxi helps to avoid difficulties, risk in business for example. In the Chinese culture, your relationships or connexions are a means to avoid risk of all kinds and is therefore very valuable. ✓ Collectivism orientation: the low individualism ranking of China is manifest in a close and committed member ‘group’

problems. * They want to win based on their own efforts and not on luck or chance Second: * They tend to be moderate risk-takers rather than high or low risk-takers: If a decision-making situation appears to be too risky, they will learn as much as they can about the environment and try to reduce the probability of failure. But when the situation is too low-risk, there usually is an accompanying low reward, and they try to avoid these situations with insufficient incentive. Third:

developing new technologies, to share complementary competencies and to develop industry standards. One of the risks is that one of the company leaves after learning all the core competencies and the managerial efficiency of the other one. There is also a risk of merging or acquisition of the weaker company by the powerful one (VAIDYA.2005.p.259-260). 1.2 Renault - Nissan decision. Now that we have defined the term alliance, we will see, in this second part. the reasons for Renault and Nissan to form

d’une approche de modèle interne (Value At Risk ; Expected Shortfall) pour mettre en place leur couverture du risque de marché. Ces méthodes sont utilisées car elles reflètent mieux les bénéfices de la diversification et amènent à des exigences plus faibles sur capitaux. En général, la méthode de la Value At Risk est la plus utilisée malgré les meilleures propriétés théoriques de la théorie « Expected Shortfall ». Concrètement, la méthode Value at Risk implique que l’on tienne compte du calcul

baisse des indices boursiers de manière à ne pas faire apparaître les moins-values. Dans une comptabilité en valeur de marché, le bilan est modifié pratiquement en temps réel par l’évolution des marchés. Supposons que, en accord avec la méthode value at risk, la banque cherche à maintenir un rapport de 1 à 10 entre fonds propres et valeur des ses actifs. En conséquence, une hausse de 1 % du prix des actifs va faire croître ses fonds propres de 10 %, qui vont permettre à la banque d’augmenter ses prêts

periods of serious recessions on stock markets, became one of the most actual investment tools. Practically all hedge fund researchers agree about one think - hedge funds’ addition to traditional asset portfolio significantly improves a return/risk portfolio profile. Therefore hedge funds enjoy their popularity and became a valuable diversification instrument, having increased assets under their management more than 20 times in the last 15 years. However, in the issue of global financial

I. (1968), « Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. », Journal of Finance, Septembre 1968, p 589-609. ALTMAN E.I., HALDEMAN R.G., NARAYANAN P. (1977), “Zeta Analysis : A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Coprporations.”, Journal of Banking and finance, Vol. 1, 1977, p 29-54. 3 4 CAPM est le Capital Asset Princing Model. En anglais Internal Rating Based appraoch ou IRB approach. 2 GALAI, 2001)5. Elle est ainsi au cœur des préoccupations

SPECULATIVE BUBBLE: Asset price bubble represents a major risk for our global linked economies. Few people are responsible but everybody has to face the brutal consequences of the bubble on the real economy. The subprime crisis drew public opinion against the unrestrained financial system that seems favoured. Media level criticism at the bankers who contribute to widen the gap between rich and poor people. Nowadays, in people’s mind, finance is assimilated to speculative behaviours led by an endless