Probability

provided in Section D. 12 2 For example, agents are said to be risk averse if they prefer an outcome with certainty (say one dollar) to the same outcome on average with uncertainty (say zero dollars with 50 per cent probability and two dollars with 50 per cent probability, the average outcome also being one dollar). While there has been no empirical research examining explicitly the role of f lexibilities as insurance, a few studies seem quite relevant. Evidence by Knetter and Prusa (2003)

Universitaires Catholiques de Mons e e e et Universit¶ des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse. e [9] Holmstrom, B. (1979) : "Moral Hazard and Observability," Bell Journal of Economics 10, 74-91. [10] Jones-Lee, M. (1974). "The Value of Changes in the Probability of Death or Injury," Journal of Political Economy 82, 835-849. [11] Mirrlees, J. A. (1975). "The Theory of Moral Hazard and Unobservable Behaviour," mimeo. Nu±eld College, Oxford. [12] Mossin, J. (1968) : "Aspects of Rational Insurance Purchasing

willingness of citizens and firms to pay bribes. Any actual program needs to be adapted to the conditions in a particular country, but the broad outlines can be identified. Anticorruption policies can increase the benefits of being honest, increase the probability of detection and the level of punishment, reduce the corrupt opportunities under the control of public officials, and increase the accountability of government to its citizens. The incentives for corruption are influenced by: l l l l l l

unlisted shares and will often include specific valuation clauses. Often, loan agreements will include provisions for the enfranchisement of loans in particular circumstances. These should also be reviewed by the valuer to determine the likelihood and probability of such circumstances occurring. The rights attaching to different shares may vary with a company’s results, for example, as a result of a ‘ratchet’ or on its flotation, or on a part disposal, requiring the valuer to form an opinion about rights

French bill as a form of legitimate conscientious objection. But for the opponents it raised yet another negative issue. It has been observed that in systems of compulsory voting there is a surplus of spoiled or blank ballots, as well as a high probability of casting ill-considered votes. This has consequences not only for the quality of the vote, but sometimes also for the electoral outcome. Another problem is that, despite technical guarantees like the possibility of casting a blank ballot, without

940000 0.497608 -0.004013 2.962707 -0.113851 -0.181054 1.230511 -1.368893 0.699994 0.319483 2.198114 0.664852 0.724000 0.912000 0.342000 0.155464 -0.485701 2.302560 0.477028 0.477491 0.776123 0.148507 0.149845 -0.309908 3.095327 Jarque-Bera Probability 0.815553 0.665128 0.001637 0.999182 1.182710 0.553577 1.608802 0.447356 0.442416 0.801550 Observations 27 27 27 27 27 b. Corrélation entre ISEME et les autres indices ISEME DBUSINESS GCI GOUVERNANCE IDH ISEME 1.000000 0.700332

Section Data., in Post Keynesian Economics, Kurikara, Keneth, K. (ed.), Rutgers Uni- versity Press, pp. 388-436. Patinkin Don (1995), Review of Irving Fisher: a biography, Journal of Eco- nomic Literature, 33, n° 3. Ramsey Franck P. (1926), Truth an Probability, in The foundations of math- emathics and other logical essays, , Harcourt Brace and Co, New York, 1950. © D e B oe ck S up ér ie ur | T él éc ha rg é le 2 8/ 02 /2 02 3 su r w w w .c ai rn .in fo ( IP : 1 96 .7 5. 21 0. 43 )© D e B oeck

Priorité 1 Priorité 2 Priority 1 Priority 2 Probabilité faible Probabilité forte High probability Low probability Priorité 4 Priorité 3 Priority 4 Priority 3 Gravité faible Low gravity En résumé Insight La matrice gravité/probabilité permet de tester la robustesse de son diagnostic au regard d’éventuelles crises à anticiper. Gravity-probability matrix aims at testing the robustness of its diagnosis towards possible crises to be anticipated. Elle

et Iglehart. (1970). Multiple Channel Queues in Heavy Traffic. Advances in Applied Probability, Vol. 2, No°1, pp. 150-177, Spring. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00018678%28197021%292%3A1%3C150%3AMCQIHT%3E2 .0.CO%3B2-5 Bibliographie 151 [Donlad et al, 1970] Donald, L. et Iglehart. (1970). Multiple Channel Queues in Heavy Traffic: Sequences, Networks, and Batches. Advances in Applied Probability, Vol. 2, N° 2, pp. 355-369. Autumn. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00018678%28197023%292%3A2%3C355%3AMCQIHT%3E2

Terme Dépôts à Vue Experted Loss Frais de Gestion Fonds pour Risques Bancaires Généraux Gestion Actif-Passif Internal Rating Based Approach Livret Épargne Logement Livret Épargne Populaire Organisme de Placement Collectif en Valeurs Mobilières Probability Density Function Produit Net Bancaire Return On Assets Return On Equity Société d’Investissement à Capital Variable Société de Refinancement Hypothécaire Taux de cession internes Titre interbancaire de payement Taux Interne de Transfert des Fonds