Probability theory

characteristics (1) today; (2) in the past; (3) in the future. Acknowledging that the ocean circulation is a problem in fluid dynamics, the history of that subject shows that the combination of theory with observations (experiments) is essential. Without observations, theories rapidly become irrelevant or go badly awry; without theory, observations are uninterpretable. Thus for the contemporary ocean, we have substantial, if still incomplete, observations. For the ocean of the past, there are fragmentary GM01073_CH06

coping responses and social resources in attenuating the stress of life events. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 4, 139-157. BOKAERTS, M. (1996). Coping with stress in childhood and adolescence. In M. ZEIDNER et N.S. ENDLER (Eds.), Handbook of coping. Theory, research, applications. New York : Wiley, chap. 20, pp. 452-484. BOLGER, N. (1990). Coping as a personality process : A prospective study. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 525-537. BRUCHON-SCHWEITZER, M. (à paraître). Manuel de psychologie

in economics showing that individuals’discount rates are best approximated by hyperbolic rather than the traditional exponential functions. We refer the reader to Ainslie (1975), Thaler (1981) and Benzion et al. (1989) for empirical support of this theory both in animals and humans. . .” Et de poser plusieurs questions indispensables pour valider ce modèle somme toute récent. Comment les résultats empiriques supportent-ils le modèle? Sachant qu'il existe une infinité de fonctions pouvant approximer

manager Collateral: risk free assets See Tavakoli (2003), Chapter 9 Banque de France • Financial Stability Review • No. 6 • June 2005 47 ARTICLES The CDO market: Functioning and implications in terms of financial stability While in theory a very broad range of underlying instruments may be employed, the structure of the deal and the way in which risk is transferred largely determine the type of assets used. Indeed, certain underlying instruments (investment grade bonds, for example)

present hereafter our research hypotheses and the experimental design for testing them. 2.2. Hypotheses Consumers' valuation of a product can be assessed by the aggregation of the marginal values of its characteristics. We follow the consumption theory developed by Lancaster (1966) who assumes that consumers' utilities are a function of the characteristics of the goods. These characteristics define specific features of the products or their process. In our case, the most relevant attributes of

mais permettent d’englober plus de cas, ce qui confère au théorème une portée plus générale encore. C’est cette formulation que nous avons utilisée car elle semble préférable à la formulation originale, de l’avis même de Arrow dans ses Notes on the theory of social choice. Ce nouveau système de conditions ne peut toujours pas être vérifié par un même mode de scrutin, même s’il relâche certaines hypothèses. Le théorème de Arrow n’en est que plus déconcertant. Voici ces conditions2 : Condition 1 (Universalité)

POLITICAL THEORY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS POLITICAL THEORY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS With a New Afterword by the Author Charles R. Beitz PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY Copyright © 1979 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 3 Market Place, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1SY Afterword © 1999 by Princeton University Press All Rights

of individuals between different states. In this study, we used the instrumental variables estimator, developed by Karantininis (2002) based on the generalized cross entropy formalism, which stems originally out of the Shanon’s (1948) information theory, to recover a non-stationary transition probabilities matrix (NSTPM) for the cereal farm in the region of MidiPyrenees, considering the transitions of 7 size categories of farms over 1988-2000. Along the NSTPM, we were able to calculate in the form

and condensation of concepts and methodological outlines which are still,for the most part, seeking a general consécration. Secondly, the reader may be surprised to find here concepts borrowed from several adjacent fields — from planning to décision theory or from scientific research to statistical inference. But, forecasting, in its widest sense, includes all methods ofperceiving the future; it is therefore natural that it should profit from their conceptual contributions. Moreover, forecasting is

their news from programs such as The Daily Show. Because young people are more impressionable (Sears, 1983) and thus more prone to any adverse effects The Daily Show might have, the political effects of The Daily Show are important to understand. Theory and Hypotheses Baum’s research into the effects of soft news suggests that when candidates appear on talk shows, viewers are likely to evaluate them more positively. But candidate appearances, even during an election season, are rela- Baumgartner