Probability

Training, and Work Organization in American Establishments” Industrial Relations 34(2), pp. 125-146. , [26] PELLETIER, M-P. (2005). “Les rendements de la formation en enterprise” , Mémoire de M.Sc., HEC Montréal. [27] SCOTT, F. et GAREN, J. (1994). “Probability of purchase, amount of purchase, and the demographic incidence of the lottery tax” Journal of , Public Economics, 54, 121-143. [28] TURCOTTE, J., LÉONARD, A. et MONTMARQUETTE, C. (2003). La série sur le travail en évolution : Nouveaux déterminants

statistiques‘’ Flash pour les sciences économiques et sociales. Armand Colin. -5- P. Roger ‘’Probabilités, statistique et processus stochastiques‘’ Cours et exercices. Collection synthex, Pearson Education. -6- G.R. Grimmett and D.R. Stirzaker ‘’ Probability and Random Processes ‘’ Oxford Science Publications. -7- B. Tribout ‘’Statistique pour économistes et gestionnaire‘’ Cours et exercices. Collection Pearson Education France, 2007. UFR de Sciences Economiques et de Gestion L2 - Support de cours

des Risques et Finances En méthode standard, l’approche est similaire à celle utilisée selon la méthodologie Cooke sur le principe de pondération forfaitaire, mais elle prend en compte les techniques de réduction du risque. Les trois paramètres Probability of Default (PD), Exposure At Default (EAD) et Loss Given Default (LGD) sont fixés par le régulateur sous forme de pondération à appliquer aux encours (PD, EAD) et aux garanties (LGD). FONDS PROPRES COMPLEMENTAIRES EN KDH 2009 2008 4 944 043

widespread attention by a 1999 academic paper, The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime, authored by the economists Steven D. Levitt and John Donohue. They attributed the drop in crime to a reduction in individuals said to have a higher statistical probability of committing crimes: unwanted children, especially those born to mothers who are African-American, impoverished, adolescent, uneducated, and single. The change coincided with what would have been the adolescence, or peak years of potential criminality

PROGRAMME            Introduction to Financial Risks definition, including: Business Risk,  Operational Risk, Financial Risk (market risk, credit risk, liquidity  risk), Legal Risk  A short story of financial losses and risk management.  Basics Probability and Statistics: a short review (Mean, standard  deviation, correlation, skewness & kurtosis, Estimating parameters  of distributions, Linear regression and correlation, Monte Carlo  analysis, ...)  Market Risk Management:  – Sources of Risks: interest rate

to each company. Figure 1 Although the formula for Beta in CAPM is not straightforward, the logic behind it is: Equity investors impute Beta for a given company based on the future risk profile of that company. Thus, for a given company, the probability-weighted cost of future earnings re-statements, SEC investigations, derivatives blow-ups, and other accounting-related mishaps are included in Beta and thereby are included in the cost of equity capital. Financial managers commonly assume that Beta

leur environnement grâce à leur système ; l’écholocation répond aux variations de l’environnement. Article 2004, « de nouvelles preuves en faveur d’une conscience animale » dans Animal cognition “This paper reviews evidence that increases the probability that many animals experience at least simple levels of consciousness. First, the search for neural correlates of consciousness has not found any consciousness-producing structure or process that is limited to human brains. Second, appropriate

Granger (tableau 8). 20 Tableau 8 : Test de causalité entre LELECONS et LSERVVA Hypothèse nulle D(LSERVVA) ne cause pas D(LELECONS) D(LELECONS) ne cause pas D(LSERVVA)** (**) Rejet de l’hypothèse nulle à 5% F-Statistic 0.27741 4.83939 Probability 0.60241 0.03594 En procédant par des simulations de Monte Carlo, on constate que la variance de l’erreur de prévision du PIB dans le secteur des services (Annexe B2) est expliquée à 17% environ par les valeurs passées de la consommation d’énergie

Utility and Random Choice », in Essays in Honour of Werner Leinfellner, H. Berghel ed, Reidel, Dordrecht, 1985. ALLAIS M. et HAGEN O., Expected Utility and the Allais Paradox, Reidel, 1979. ANSCOMBE F. et AUMANN R., « A Definition of Subjective Probability », Annals of Mathematical Statistics, nº 34, mars 1963. A RROW K.J., « The Theory of Risk Aversion », in Aspects of the Theory of Risk Bearing, Yrjö Foundation, Helsinki, 1965. BAWA V., BROWN J. et KLEIN D., Estimation Risk and Optimal Portfolio

what message a brand is looking to communicate and on what kind of audience it wants to reach. Audience characteristics Petty and Cacioppo (1983) psychologists have developed the theory of information double treatment. They demonstrate the probability that consumers will be persuading by a message by reasoning about it. This theory is more known under the name of ELM (Elaboration Likelihood Model). See Annexe 2. This model announces that two ways of persuasion exist and the consumer is going